Gregor Macdonald, a Portland, Ore.-based journalist and
author of the ebook Oil Fall, has been chronicling the way electric cars have
been disrupting the petroleum industry, which of course relies heavily on
people driving gasoline-powered vehicles.
But Macdonald admits he slept on a development that might
have an equally significant effect on oil demand and, consequently, carbon
emissions.
"I consider myself to be someone who's very on top of
these trends, and I have nearly missed the e-bike explosion because it's
happening so fast," said Macdonald. "It's blown up in the last 12 to
18 months."
Suffice to say Macdonald is now up to speed on the e-bike
surge. These devices — which still have pedals, but also contain a rechargeable
battery and can hit speeds of 25 km/h — have seen tremendous growth in recent
years. In a report released in December, market research firm Deloitte said it
expected global sales of 130 million e-bikes between now and 2023.
That outlook is a lot more bullish than the one for electric
cars. For example, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, whose projections are
generally seen as more optimistic than those of other research firms, sees the
number of electric cars worldwide hitting the 130 million mark closer to 2030.
Electric cars have long been viewed as the most effective
way to decarbonize the transportation sector, but Macdonald believes people are
waking up to the benefits of a smaller, stealthier ride. For one thing, they're
cheaper: Whereas the lowest-priced electric car is about $30,000, a new e-bike
is in the $1,000-$5,000 range.
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| E-bikes; the key to greener transportation |
Macdonald said a typical adult rider can get a range of
about 30-40 kilometres on a single charge, which makes e-bikes well-suited to
the average daily commute (provided the weather is nice). If you get a slightly
larger e-bike with a bit of storage, you can transport your groceries and even
other people.
"It's not that [e-bikes are] going to replace cars wholesale, but they're going to replace trips made by cars," said Macdonald. "A $3,500 [US] e-bike is going to allow many families to think about going from two cars to one car."
Another reason e-bikes are gaining traction is that many
people have abandoned the notion that bikes are purely meant for exercise, said
Darnel Harris, executive director of Our Greenway, a Toronto-based mobility
advocacy group.
"As much as we talk about health and the importance of
health, society-wise … we gravitate towards a comfortable ride that's safe and
practical," he said. In the past, the default solution would have been a
car. But e-bikes provide another option to get around without breaking a sweat.
While some people have expressed concern that the rise of
e-bikes and other modes of low-speed transport are making bike lanes more
crowded and precarious, Harris said it really comes down to how they are
regulated.
Not surprisingly, Europeans have something to teach us.
Harris said bike lanes in the Netherlands are built for "more than 20
different devices," including bikes, scooters and even a
wheelchair-friendly vehicle that looks like a Smart Car.
Harris said the key is recognizing that "we shouldn't
really be building bike lanes. We should be building mobility lanes for
different types of low-speed devices — which the Dutch have done for
decades."
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