As tensions heat up between Iran, the US and Israel
following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani last week, the absence of a
stable government will harm Jerusalem’s ability to achieve its broader national
security and foreign affairs goals, the Institute for National Security Studies
(INSS) said in its annual report on Monday. This lack of stability could be highly
problematic, according to the report, if Iran and the US slip into a broader
war that could engulf the region.
The report was
delivered by INSS executive director Amos Yadlin to President Reuven Rivlin on
Monday. Researchers worked to add an additional, special section ahead of the
presentation that covers the implications of the assassination of Soleimani,
Iran’s IRGC Quds Force leader. According to the report, a vast array of
challenges, leading with Iran, are confronting the country “against the
backdrop of a continuing political crisis in Israel that will make it difficult
to developed updated strategies.
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| Iran and US potential broad war |
The report explained some of what the institute believes
will be Israel's major challenges in the near future, including that
"Iran’s increased daring and determination in the nuclear arena," as
well as its attempts to establish a presence in Syria and other areas, could
provide it with "new abilities to act against Israel." The report also noted that “Hezbollah’s
attempts to obtain a large number of precision weapons and the efforts of Hamas
to reduce the pressure on Gaza and to impact the terms of an understanding with
Israel,” are major challenges.
Seeking to negotiate
a peace deal with the Palestinian Authority is mentioned in the report, but has
less prominence than other issues. For example, INSS advocates for the Trump
administration to publish its peace plan, but no top Israeli politicians
running for prime minister are pushing for this – and there are no signs that
it will be made public before mid-spring, if at all. Regarding Iran, the report
said that it is too early to know the full repercussions of the US strike on
Soleimani and on Iranian-affiliated militias last week.
The report flags the question of whether these actions could
lead to escalated US military aggressiveness toward Iran, or whether the Trump
administration was merely hoping to act decisively in order to deter Tehran
from attacking US assets and to achieve greater quiet. Whatever Washington's
original intent was, INSS said that the situation is currently so explosive
that Israel must be ready to suddenly and fundamentally shift its strategies in
each and every national security arena in order to maintain its security in the
face of warping challenges.
The report said that
Iran would most likely retaliate against US assets for the assassination of its
leader, but that American allies, like Israel and Sunni moderate Arab states,
could also find themselves under fire. Moving to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear
weapons program, the institute says there are two possible scenarios.
The more likely
scenario is that Tehran continues a slow but steady path toward a nuclear
weapon. Following the US assassination of Soleimani, INSS views the likelihood
of a new Trump-Iran deal as much less likely, although still not impossible at
some later point.
Overall, the institute summarized the Iranian nuclear threat
as less serious than some other short-term threats in 2020, but as presenting
the greatest existential danger to Israel long-term. INSS warns that if Israel
fails to reach even a medium-term extended ceasefire with Hamas, that the
chances of a re-run of the intense 2014 Gaza War are very high, and could
happen as soon as this year.
While advocating
reaching a ceasefire with Hamas, the report said that if there was a new war
with Gaza, then Israel must act more assertively and with greater surprise
against Hamas’s military assets than in the past. It said that, in the event of
war, the IDF should not reconquer Gaza, but should also look to reach a result
in which Hamas no longer is the sole ruler of coastal enclave.
In addition, the
report contains sections regarding diplomacy with the US, China, Russia and
other important issues. The institute
said that Israel must invest in re-establishing itself as a bi-partisan issue,
since the American presidential race could lead to certain Democratic
candidates winning the presidency who are less personally committed to Israel
than Trump or past presidents.
In the same vein, the report advocates altering religion and
state policies, often dictated by Israel’s haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties,
which have harmed Israeli relations with the mostly non-orthodox Jewish
Diaspora.
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